2008 Election Projections
The last four days have been anything but civil; however, that's been the modus operandi for this election cycle. Obama promised to take public funding and McCain promised a positive campaign- neither man delivered on their promise. That's why it is called politics. It's been said over and over again that Obama simply couldn't close the deal. Since it is election day, will he do it?
Newsmax raised millions to make the association between Jeremiah Wright and and Barack Obama clear in the battleground states. The polls have tightened significantly in those states which looks like the ads are having an impact.
Additionally, a January audio tape wherein Obama said he would bankrupt "dirty coal" has been played up big time by Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh making it look like he want to bankrupt all blue collar workers. How will this play in critical Ohio, next door Pennsylvania, and Missouri? It looks like it will have an impact, but enough to pull Mccain to an upset victory? i doubt it.
Here is how I see it.
Four states will be our-your clue this evening: Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri. Those four states have a total of 73 electoral votes! Polls are all over the place; however, I see all four of them within 1-2 percentages points of each other. Here's the problem for McCain. He MUST WIN all four states, and five other battleground states that Bush won in 2008. In other words, McCain must run the tables, he must draw three cards for an inside straight, or win a triple trifecta.
Get the difficulty? I'm sure McCain and his staff do! :-(
We could know who the next president will be by 7:00 tonight (CST). Ohio and North Carolina close their polls at 6:30 while Florida and Missouri close at 7:00. If Obama wins any ONE of those, he's the next president of the United States. And if that's not discouraging enough, here are the final electoral college estimates by seven of the top political analysts-
Zogby''''''....311-174-53
Rasmussen'''....313-160-65
Karl Rove''''....338-200-0
Dick Morris''''..355-133-50
Larry Sabato'''.364-174-0
CNN''''''....'291-157-90
Real Clear Politics'278-132-128
My projection............. Barack Obama wins! He closes the deal.